Ever come across the term "Silver Tsunami" and found yourself curious about its implications? You're not alone; it's been buzzing online lately. Let's delve into what this phrase means and why it won't dramatically shake up the housing market.

So, what exactly is the Silver Tsunami? According to a recent HousingWire article:

“. . . a colloquialism referring to aging Americans changing their housing arrangements to accommodate aging . . .”

The idea is that as baby boomers age, a substantial number will start downsizing their homes. Given the size of this generation, a mass downsizing could flood the market with larger homes for sale, potentially disrupting the supply and demand balance.

While the concept seems plausible, will it actually happen, and if so, when?

Why won't it have a massive impact on the housing market in 2024? Experts suggest that, as of now, the Silver Tsunami hasn't materialized and probably won't anytime soon. According to the same HousingWire article:

“. . . the silver tsunami’s transformative potential for the U.S. housing market has not yet materialized in any meaningful way, and few expect it to anytime soon.”

One crucial reason is that many baby boomers are not keen on moving. AARP data reveals that over half of surveyed adults aged 65 and up plan to age in place in their current homes rather than relocate. As the chart below illustrates:

Clearly, not every baby boomer is eager to sell or move. Even those who do plan to do so gradually over time. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, emphasizes:

“Demographics are never a tsunami. The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they're going to take about two decades to work their way through.”

In essence, if concerns about a Silver Tsunami affecting the housing market are on your mind, rest assured. Any impact from baby boomers moving will be a slow, gradual process unfolding over many years. As Fleming aptly summarizes: