You won’t find anyone arguing that mortgage rates have significantly impacted housing affordability in the Conejo Valley over the past couple of years. However, there is hope on the horizon. Rates have recently started to decrease and have even reached the lowest point we've seen in 2024, according to Freddie Mac (see graph below).

If you’re considering buying a home, you might be wondering: how much lower can rates go? Here’s some insight to help you manage your expectations.

Expert Projections for Mortgage Rates

Experts indicate that the overall downward trend in mortgage rates is likely to continue as long as inflation and the economy keep cooling. However, there may be some volatility as new reports on key economic indicators are released.

It's essential to stay focused on the broader trend rather than getting distracted by temporary fluctuations. Rates are down roughly a full percentage point from their peak in May.

The general consensus is that rates in the low 6% range could be possible in the coming months, depending on the economy and the Federal Reserve’s actions.

Many experts are beginning to revise their 2024 mortgage rate forecasts more optimistically. For instance, Realtor.com notes:

“Mortgage rates have been revised slightly lower as signals from the economy suggest that it will be appropriate for the Fed to begin to cut its Federal Funds rate in 2024. Our yearly mortgage rate average forecast is down to 6.7%, and we revised our year-end forecast to 6.3% from 6.5%.”

Know Your Target Mortgage Rate

So, what does this mean for you and your plans to move in the Conejo Valley? If you’ve been waiting for rates to drop, know that it’s already happening. Now, based on expert projections and your own budget, it’s time to decide when you’ll be ready to re-enter the market. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:

“The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move.”

As a next step, ask yourself: what mortgage rate would make you feel comfortable moving forward with your home search?

Whether it’s 6.25%, 6.0%, or 5.99%, identifying your target rate is a personal decision. Once you’ve set that number, you don’t need to monitor rates constantly.

Instead, connect with a local Conejo Valley real estate professional. They’ll keep you informed on the latest market trends and let you know when rates hit your target.

Bottom Line

If you’ve paused your plans to move because of higher mortgage rates, consider the rate that would encourage you to re-enter the market. Once you have that number in mind, let’s connect so you have an expert on your side to notify you when the market meets your expectations.